The following analysis and commentary comes from David Gibson at Macquarie Capital Securities (Japan) Limited...
- has downgraded Nintendo stock to "underperform"
- "increasingly problematic structural problems for the company."
- target price of ¥10,000
- "if Nintendo went iOS/Android with games we think the stock could be worth ¥20,000+, but in our view that's not going to happen."
- "competitive position of the WiiU has deteriorated"
- advises avoiding Nintendo stock until E3.
Gibson outlined three potentially big problems for Nintendo:
- Wii U GPU is less powerful than Xbox360/PS3 according to developers
- iPad with its retina display shows where Apple is taking its 4 screen infrastructure, leaving Wii U less connected and less relevant
- Wii U will have 1-year window to gain installed base before PS4 (Orbis) and then Xbox Durango launch in late 2013. At that point, the core gamer that Nintendo is after for the first time will have no interest in Wii U. We understand that Activision has no plans to support Wii U, which means the biggest selling title of Call of Duty will be missing; Konami is also planning minimal support.
I don't know where these comments about Activision are coming from. Last we heard, the company had plays to support Wii U. Let's hope this analyst is just being fed incorrect info.
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- has downgraded Nintendo stock to "underperform"
- "increasingly problematic structural problems for the company."
- target price of ¥10,000
- "if Nintendo went iOS/Android with games we think the stock could be worth ¥20,000+, but in our view that's not going to happen."
- "competitive position of the WiiU has deteriorated"
- advises avoiding Nintendo stock until E3.
Gibson outlined three potentially big problems for Nintendo:
- Wii U GPU is less powerful than Xbox360/PS3 according to developers
- iPad with its retina display shows where Apple is taking its 4 screen infrastructure, leaving Wii U less connected and less relevant
- Wii U will have 1-year window to gain installed base before PS4 (Orbis) and then Xbox Durango launch in late 2013. At that point, the core gamer that Nintendo is after for the first time will have no interest in Wii U. We understand that Activision has no plans to support Wii U, which means the biggest selling title of Call of Duty will be missing; Konami is also planning minimal support.
I don't know where these comments about Activision are coming from. Last we heard, the company had plays to support Wii U. Let's hope this analyst is just being fed incorrect info.
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to be fair these analysts want nintendo to do apple apps, sell its 3ds business which is number 1, and not do games anymore...........
how could they lead nintendo wrong?
Activision supports everything.
I do think the whole tablet controller thing is ill conceived though.
Because the sun is shining here today, I predict that the earth will catch on fire a burn forever.
Pathetic. These posts are not news worthy and are in fact total bullsh*t. What on Earth is going on with all these stories of Nintendo doom and gloom? It's like people just ignore what developers have just said (yesterday) and continue to ride the "anonymous dev" comments article posted earlier in the week.
Just two more months.....just two more months of this. People are going to be shocked at how amazing the graphics are on the Wii U if this keeps up until E3. WOW.
I think he is talking out of his bum NINTENDO Wii U is going to be sick I want Metal Gear Solid on it
If indeed there are developers who aren't going to support the WiiU they will find themselves in the same situation as the developers that didn't support the DS, the Wii and the 3DS. Scrambling to catch up.
Yeah, because I'm soooooo interested in having a console that'll have s*** for games, cheap ripoffs of Nintendo first party software at best, and leaks my credit card to anyone who asks for it.
Oh, I'm also looking to support the ps4 and 720 so that MORE 3rd party developers can declare bankrupcy. That's always fun, too.
"http://www.gamespot.com/news/e3-2011-activision-supporting-wii-u-6317743"
do I believe activision or a troll, oh I am sorry, analyst
http://www.gamespot.com/news/e3-2011-ac ... -u-6317743
http://www.gamesthirst.com/2011/06/14/a ... -duty-yet/
Same site that said "Wii U is weaker then 360/PS3" and now is lieing about Activision.
This proves everything was about hate and not facts.
Isn't konami a fairly large deal in japan? Love plus is serious business (I'm serious). I have no love for activision nor do I want to say this, but you can't have the core audience without activision. Now I'll go and wash out my face.
For every COD, Tony Hawk and Guitar Hero series they mangle, they do put out some good original stuff.
Ok, enough is enough. I don't reply much but I need to say this. We've been reading constant hate geared toward Nintendo since the beginning of time, now more than ever. Most of these comments from analysts, to be honest, are nothing short of insane. So I started thinking, what would be a logical explanation as to the true motive and reasoning for all of this to unfold as it has? Investors/analysts can't have both- 1.Nintendo games on mobile phones/devices(share value skyrockets right now) 2.Ride it out as usual(poss. share value increase at unkown future date) Analysts must take action to ensure their illusory future profit is certain. So what is the answer? Bash the company continously with misleading and completely false information until the share value hits rock bottom. Then buy it all up, because at the end of the day, hypocritically, they know damn well Nintendo knows what they're doing.
On a side note, I'm playing their twisted game and shortly "before" E3, I'm buying Nintendo stock. :0)
Meh. Wake me up when E3 2012 arrives.
These comments are amusing. Mobile gaming is a fad like everything else. Nintendo survives all the trends and comes out on top.
There are some things Nintendo is doing that worries me, but not to the extreme that this guy is saying.
And no Activision is a great thing, no COD BS on the Wii U would be amazing.
To those who wonder why RMC posts these stories (@Hadrian) -- it is because he has to. Do a search on this David Gibson fellow and this story is all over the web. It would look bad for the integrity of the site for it not to be posted.
Look more closely and you see this David Gibson last made news four months ago on a mobile developer IPO on Japan that did not fare well.
Gibson has proven to be no fan of Nintendo, saying "Nintendo needs to be more social and digital and it’s going to struggle to do so as it won’t give up its hardware/software combination strategy,” said David Gibson, head of research at Macquarie Capital Securities. in a story around the time of TGS last fall -- which would be after the 3DS price drop.
He is one of two or three analysts in Japan -- JPMorgan analyst Hiroshi Kamide being another -- who don't like Nintendo. Of course, the problem with stock analysts is they are looking for short term gains while Nintendo thinks long term.
Thus, it is not surprising that an analyst opwith a negative bent on Nintendo would be featured on a website that has not always seen the company in a good light making judgements based on unsubstantiated reports (unless he has info that no one else can verify). Of course, his general recommendation is not a bad one. Nintendo stock dropped 1.3 percent today, but reports placed that as the result of the euros fall against the yen as the entire Nikkei thumbles.
Finally, to those who think that the comments against this analyst here show fanboyism (@Hawk) other general gaming forums have the same tone.
Mike from Morgantown
I get a sense of reassurance in this hate and rumors will always remain such until proven.
He's only partially right.
Konami hasn't been wowing anyone lately, and them gobbling up Hudson and pretty much screwing their fanbases (Bomberman, Bonk), I'd say that unless they quit acting like arses - then they can get on board with the Wii U.
Of course, this analyst doesn't seem like he's too confident in his own analysis.
Besides, ever since the 3DS turnaround, analysts are now using Wii U as a scapegoat. How pathetic.
All I have to say is, Konami is not support to anyone these days. The only franchise they continuously pump, MGS, is not a game that pushes systems into the stratosphere. They've been kinda dropping the ball with SH too.
@CHAOSDRAGON88 Thing is though, once these kinds of things are proven wrong no one cares anymore and already spouting out their own new opinions on what the future is and how someone else is doomed, I don't see the purpose in trying to predict someone's failure, what do you even gain by doing so?
"- Wii U GPU is less powerful than Xbox360/PS3 according to developers" - HAHAHAHAHAHAHA no...
My dear Analyst, I regret to inform you that you are mentally handicapped...
I thought about this overnight.
I think this is a case of an analyst trying to use available reports (the disputed at best and contridicted at worst console power reports) and lack of reports (game release schedules from a company that a year ago said it would support the console) to support his position that Nintendo should release its games on mobile platforms.
"Going mobile" is this year's answer to "Going Sega" (becoming a third party software company).
What I wonder about is why there are not these big "dump Sony" warnings by analysts. Not meaning to bash, but the company is hemorrahaging money as a whole, there are news stories that the PS4 won't play used games and thus won't be carried by GameStop, and the Vita is getting outsold by the 3DS in Japan.
Mike from Morgantown
So, part of being an analyst is embracing retardation on a regular basis? Must be nice not to work within the confines of fact or reason.
Sounds like they are just listening to rumors and random guesses to make decisions. This is why I sometimes find the free market ridiculous. Some people actually listen to fools like this.
Be sure to let us know how our investment goes. Are you investing on the speculation that the wii u will perform similarly to the wii? Or have you researched the company financially and view them as a bargain stock? I would like to know your reasoning as people who are willing to put money where their mouth is have at least some credibility (as opposed to faceless geeks on a forum). Also how large of a position do you see yourself taking, and will you leverage (ie. options)?
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