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Smash Direct wrap-up
 

Pachter - Wii U lifetime will hit 30 - 50 million units, coming generation final one

This comes from his presentation over at SXSW...





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86 total comments (View all)
User avatar
10 Mar 2013 00:01

coffeewithchess wrote:
Pachter has a job, but it's not based around the gaming industry. From what I understand, he actually does a lot of the gaming stuff, for fun/free, because he enjoys it.

Can we please put this idea to rest?

No, his main job isn't his gaming predictions that get posted all over the net but to assume that he doesn't get paid for Pach-Attack (ad money at least) or for speaking at conventions/events like SXSW or even indirectly making money off them, whether by gaining new clients or by making new industry "friends", is naive. The bottom of his slideshow says "Wedbush Equity Research 3/8/2013" meaning someone paid for that presentation to be made up for that event at the very least.

So he does make money off these predictions.

Just that one analyst has so much credibility in an industry he is an analyst for is troubling especially when his "predictions" can be seen as attempts to sway the market for the benefit of his clients. And all games media just regurgitates it as if it can, or is even meant to, give the average gamer insight on the industry. When the average gamer is able to make more informed predictions than the most well-known analyst in the industry, something is definitely wrong.
User avatar
10 Mar 2013 00:18

The_King_Up_North wrote:I can actually see Nintendo attempting to stay relevant by creating a single handheld/console hybrid for the generation after this one (their handheld and console divisions have already merged together) that connects up to your TV wirelessly, while still being able to be used on-the-go (kinda like a vastly superior Vita). Technology prices are rapidly dropping, so 5+ years from now, a device like this should be easily feasible for a reasonable price (like $180-200) while having PS4-esque graphics. Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if it looks like a more refined GamePad with a second screen that folds for backwards compatibility with Wii U and 3DS games. Nintendo isn't afraid of making bulky devices.


Pretty much what I expect, come 9th generation.

bszelda wrote:Estimates are not always the real future. For all they know, when Nintendo announces a ton of first party titles, the Wii U could sell 4 times as much as their estimate in the end. It all depends on how many are interested in the console and advertising/word of mouth, etc.


@ *referring to bold*

This.
User avatar
10 Mar 2013 00:51

Wonkoo wrote:I just don't understand his positivity towards Sony and Microsoft's consoles. The market is collapsing in on itself, and he believes the PS4 and NextBox will EACH reach lifetime levels similar to the Wii? That's an awful lot of growth.

I'll be saving these images so I can pull them out in a few years to laugh at how wrong they are.


This says it all really.

Vonter wrote:Too many powerful consoles can't coexist. It's like having only ferocious dinosaurs. They might fight and hasten their own extinction. - Shigeru Miyamoto


What a great quote.

JD wrote:
The_King_Up_North wrote:I do strongly believe this will be the last generation of consoles as we know them. If there are consoles beyond the 720/PS4/Wii U, they'll likely be entirely multimedia with games as just another piece of media it can play. Think along the lines of a set-top box like Google TV or an OUYA with expanded functionality.


Ugh... am I the only one who hates this idea? I don't want to buy a multimedia device, I wanna buy a game player, that I can play on my TV and use an actual controller to play! I buy a game system to play games, not to mess around with all the added junk they throw in to compensate for a lack of innovation and excuse the high asking price.


You are definitely not alone JD.
User avatar
10 Mar 2013 01:05

Yeah. I think he doesn't think when he throws this crap together.

My biggest problems have been pointed out by others countless times in the comments, but what the heck... His NextBox/PS4 numbers are ridiculous especially knowing nothing about one and not a whole lot about the other. My biggest issue, though, is that he thinks consoles could sell 200 million+ units combined and we wouldn't see an attempt at a Gen 9.
User avatar
10 Mar 2013 01:14

lockNES wrote:
Can we please put this idea to rest?

No, his main job isn't his gaming predictions that get posted all over the net but to assume that he doesn't get paid for Pach-Attack (ad money at least) or for speaking at conventions/events like SXSW or even indirectly making money off them, whether by gaining new clients or by making new industry "friends", is naive. The bottom of his slideshow says "Wedbush Equity Research 3/8/2013" meaning someone paid for that presentation to be made up for that event at the very least.

So he does make money off these predictions.

Just that one analyst has so much credibility in an industry he is an analyst for is troubling especially when his "predictions" can be seen as attempts to sway the market for the benefit of his clients. And all games media just regurgitates it as if it can, or is even meant to, give the average gamer insight on the industry. When the average gamer is able to make more informed predictions than the most well-known analyst in the industry, something is definitely wrong.


Pachter has said he does not invest in any of the gaming companies he talks about. Do you know how many conferences there are, and how much speakers at the conferences get paid? Usually, it's little/nothing, other than them keeping their names in the press (we have several gaming conferences/conventions in our area each year, and speakers usually speak because they're asked, not because they're paid...UNLESS it's the main speaker at the biggest event).

I honestly have no clue if he makes money off of Pach-Attack, but knowing how little sites pay for content and that he seems to be pretty open with questions when asked, he could be doing it for free.

If someone paid for this presentation, I sure hope it wasn't a lot, because as some have stated he's not basing it really actual data, and mostly guesses. It doesn't take much research, to guess.

Again, my point was/is, Pachter does not need the gaming industry for his job, he has it without the industry.
User avatar
10 Mar 2013 01:23

Reads more like speculation and a little bit of a fanboy's wet dream.
User avatar
10 Mar 2013 01:24

lockNES wrote:
Just that one analyst has so much credibility in an industry he is an analyst for is troubling especially when his "predictions" can be seen as attempts to sway the market for the benefit of his clients. And all games media just regurgitates it as if it can, or is even meant to, give the average gamer insight on the industry. When the average gamer is able to make more informed predictions than the most well-known analyst in the industry, something is definitely wrong.


Goodness. So what about when Pachter predicted the Wii U would be sold out until April 2013 and ship 7 million consoles by then? He predicted this back in September last year. Did everyone go on a tirade about how "idiotic" Pachter was back then? He just analyzes and predicts based on the current status of what he sees in the industry. There is no agenda. There is no attempt to spread Nintendo-hate or try to change the market. He's trying to predict the market based on the data he has and sees.
User avatar
10 Mar 2013 01:37

Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight.

So Wii U is only going to sell, AT MOST, 50 million units.

But PS4 and Xbox BOTH are going to top their previous gen numbers?


Gotcha. :roll:
User avatar
10 Mar 2013 02:11

I'm actually more pissed off at Pachter and Geoff than ever.

This was supposed to be a convention for fun, innovation, and interaction towards Art & Media, and you brought a fan war?! Great job! Why not just bring primates to art shows and have them smear feces all over the paintings and sculptures?! I can not believe they did this!

[/rage]
No Avatar
10 Mar 2013 02:36

So do people just not notice when he contradicts himself in the same rant?
User avatar
10 Mar 2013 03:00

'Tings to consider (before people diss me - I watch Rastamouse, so sue me)

- Pachter is a Sony and Microsoft sellout and a prick
- FPS games (as well as violent game) are becoming too popular for their own good as they are over saturating the market (as in they get most of the income while those that deserve such like say Retro Game Challenge or Psychonauts fail to see prosperity)
- As far as i'm concerned i say bullocks to critics and analysts - If a game is good like say Retro Game Challenge and Klonoa - BUY IT! and if the game blows monkey chunks like Call of Duty (*due to CoD being the same game but with cheap gimmicks like zombies) DON'T BUY IT!
User avatar
10 Mar 2013 03:44

Deja Vu. He said the exactly the same sort of stuff running into last gen, but insisted PS3 would sell 150m units based on similar reasons
User avatar
10 Mar 2013 07:59

http://www.gametrailers.com/videos/bh15 ... nintendo--

"It doesn't make sense for Nintendo to be in the hardware market"

"it's a bad company that doesn't make money"

"Mr Iwata is a pretty poor CEO"

"Nintendo make $5-10 profit per Wii U unit"

Pachter going for the Nintendo jugular.
User avatar
10 Mar 2013 08:22

...So basically the PS4 is good and will sell well because of "phenomenal graphics and huge RAM". Nextbox will ALSO do well... Nah. If the somewhat-under-599$ price (as suggested by himself) and used-game-block is true, along with having to pay for online Playstation features, I can't see it happening, not for both at least - I can't see many people getting both at once with launches the same year, they'll likely go for the exclusives and the one with least annoying features. Hell, we don't know anything about them yet! While the Wii U will fail because it's Nintendo and that means making up as many excuses as you can as to why it will fail. Uh huh.

And the "Wii U isn't innovative enough" when "better graphics and RAM" will be enough to sell a console? seriously? Wii U is "too similar to current-gen consoles"... have you even played one? But of course, you mean in terms of RAM and graphics, which as we all know is everything that matters for a console. Silly me.

Also, nice contradiction in that "Wii U is priced too similar to what next-gen consoles will be" and then assuming PS4 launch price as somewhat-under-599$. Nice one, Pachter, nice one.

JD wrote:
The_King_Up_North wrote:I do strongly believe this will be the last generation of consoles as we know them. If there are consoles beyond the 720/PS4/Wii U, they'll likely be entirely multimedia with games as just another piece of media it can play. Think along the lines of a set-top box like Google TV or an OUYA with expanded functionality.

Ugh... am I the only one who hates this idea? I don't want to buy a multimedia device, I wanna buy a game player, that I can play on my TV and use an actual controller to play! I buy a game system to play games, not to mess around with all the added junk they throw in to compensate for a lack of innovation and excuse the high asking price.

Yeah... I'm not a fan either. Multimedia features are nice, but having some "multimedia device that could also play games" doesn't seem like the way to go. Especially if it adds a lot to the price for features I don't care much about when all I want is to play some goddamn games. Also, no one is suggesting the multimedia box approach for, say, DVD/bluray players?
No Avatar
10 Mar 2013 09:14

awfully bold of him to talk garbage at the same event Nintendo is at.
No Avatar
10 Mar 2013 09:44

@DBPanterA

You're describing things that happen at the start of every console generation. Of course it takes time to build an install base. It's the console manufacturer's job to market the console and convince developers to support it.

Aside from possibly the Wii U, no console has ever had an amazing lineup of varied launch titles. SEGA Genesis, SEGA Saturn, Dreamcast, N64, GameCube, PS2, PS3, Xbox, Xbox 360, DS, 3DS, PSP, Vita, (etc) launches were filled with mediocre games (or even no games at all).

EDIT:
Also, $300-$400 has been the standard launch price for consoles for years. The Wii U is just following that trend.

And game consoles are already "multimedia boxes". The PS2, Xbox 360, PS3, and (to some extent) Wii U all do many things besides just gaming. Thankfully Sony is making the PS4 targeted around gamers ("by gamers, for gamers" their tagline at the February 20 PS4 presentation).
User avatar
10 Mar 2013 10:41

It will be interesting to see what the "innovative" titles will be that use all the horsepower of the PS4.

I mean, right now, developers are AFRAID of innovation and taking chances as they are considered too risky to making millions of $$$$, so we get constant repeats of Call of Duty, Assassin's Creed, Crysis, Gears of War, Halo, Mario, and on and on and on.

Where are the innovative, risk taking titles of the past like Seaman or Jet Grind Radio or Shenmue on the Dreamcast; Everquest Online Adventures or Final Fantasy Online (that required a hard drive) on the PS2; Pikmin or Luigi's Mansion or motion control on the GameCube/Wii.

If developers are afraid of taking risks on the Xbox360/PS3, then why would anyone think it would be different on PS4 or Xbox720???

I predict many, many ports of current/upcoming titles will be the foundation of software to these new systems.... you know, BioShock Infinite PS4, Gears of War720, Last of Us Huge RAM version, Halo Reach Updated Version, etc etc etc.
User avatar
10 Mar 2013 11:41

Nintendo will sell 30 million Wii Us if they're very, very, Very lucky.... and Sony will easily do quadruple that number of units. (Because they know what they're doing!)

(Hire me Wedbush Morgan!)
No Avatar
10 Mar 2013 12:55

Current lifetime sales for Xbox 360 and PS3 are about 70 million each. They will likely barely hit 85-90 million currently, but it's hard to believe the next gen will hit those number, given the flood of new consoles entering the market (Ouya, Steam Box, the Steam console made by Steam, the dozen other consoles on Kickstarter). Add in whatever Apple may be cooking up (if you don't think the Apple TV will have some video game component, you're crazy) and the high costs to develop, we may be heading for the next video game crash, or at least a huge market re-adjustment.
User avatar
10 Mar 2013 14:20

That's an extremely massive assumption and a heavily biased power point, although I would say that this generation will probably be the least interesting (for everyone). I'm really not looking forward to the race to get a pc in your living room because that's a losing battle already. Throw in the fact that exclusives just aren't what they used to be and this generation is looking extremely bleak.

The only reason I bought a 3ds is because it'll be at least one to two more generations before upping the resolution would make it a fine pc game.
User avatar
10 Mar 2013 16:15

I think that's actually fair for the Wii U and very likely, but it's being looked at as a negative, which 30-50mil would be a huge success.

PS4 and 720 aren't going to even come close to those numbers. Ha ha. I think Wii U's numbers will probably be likely for all 3.
User avatar
10 Mar 2013 21:03

I still think the WiiU is gonna be a popular second console when the price drops and Nintendo releases it's big titles. I can see the WiiU easily coming in second with a chance for first. Im not gonna try and predict prices, but i would think by the time Sony and MS release their consoles, the WiiU should cost about half of what those two systems cost. Also, I think if given the option on buying two consoles, not a lot of people will pick the PS4 and Durango, they would instead opt for one of those along with a WiiU.

One more thing, where was all the innovation when we went from the PS2/Xbox to the PS3/360? Same games, just more eye candy. The way this industry is now, more ram will be used to make things prettier, not to innovate. It just means developers don't have to be as unique or creative now because they can just throw a bunch of graphics on screen to please those who worship graphics over everything else.
User avatar
10 Mar 2013 23:26

Gee, all those executives couldn't figure out the secret to new consoles and patcher did: More Power! The most powerful console has always won each generation! History and Logic come together for the greatest Patcher Prophesy of them all.

Nintendo dumped EA and patcher marries them.
User avatar
11 Mar 2013 12:47

Nintendo makes too little of profit on hardware to justify selling consoles, they should be more like Sony and Microsoft who sell their hardware at losses. - Michael LemonGrab Pachter
User avatar
11 Mar 2013 13:51

Haha, so this douche is a marketing man for Sony and MS now, by the sounds of it?? :lol: So much for all the credibility, if any, the guy had left.

"PS4 is impressive" - sure, we haven't even seen the console yet, but whatever dick..
"huge RAM makes innovation likely" - sure, huge RAM is one of the main innovation points in gaming, whoever has the most of it innovates the most by default.
"likely to sell 85-95 million units" - sure, we know nothing about the system or the price point but it will easily outperform PS3 in this way tougher market climate by 15-25 million units, for sure.

"Durango not yet announced... built-in TV tuner, Kinect bundled with every console, Skype integration, and more" - sure, nothing is known about the system but Pachter likes to blow the specs out his ass, like they are sales numbers.
"Durango likely to sell 85-95 million units" - Again, Pachter likes to blow the sales numbers out his ass, like they are specs. No price point or release date but will easily outperform Xbox360 by 10-20 million units in this day and age of tablets, social network games and smartphones.

"Wii U essentially a DS split into two" - gee, you really have no f--king clue about videogames, now do you?
"priced too closely to the likely launch prices of PS4 and Durango to thrive" - again, moron is assuming sh!t, probably not even Sony and MS know the final price points for sure at this time. That depends on a lot of things, but corporate shill Pachter has decided that the price points are perfect. Also, you'd think a "specialist" would realize that by the time competitors are about to release, Nintendo will slash prices hard and/or put out attrative new bundles, but Pachter's ignorance continues to surprise.
"Wii U likely to sell 30-50 million in it's lifetime" - Sure, Wii U likely won't do Wii's numbers, but then again PS4 and Durango won't either. It's funny how everything Nintendo does will automatically fail and everything everybody else does will automatically win in this fools mind, even if we know next to nothing about the said systems. What is the most surprising is that people continue to write about this dick's predictions, when more often than not he has failed miserably. If you know anything about gaming, you know never count Nintendo out. With that said, it's obvious Pachter knows nothing about gaming. Mickey Dees is hiring calculator boy, now STFU and get the f--k out of my gaming.-

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