Pachter's full statement on Nintendo Q2 incoming results ...

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Pachter's full statement on Nintendo Q2 incoming results ...

Postby robometal cowboy » 28 Oct 2013 22:44

Pachter's full statement on Nintendo Q2 incoming results - optimism, mixed with a bleak outlook
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On Wednesday, October 30, before market open in the west, Nintendo Co., Ltd. (NTDOY.PK) will report Q2:14 (September) results. It will not hold a financial results briefing.

We expect another miss in Q2. Nintendo is likely to report Q2 results below our estimates for revenue of 155 billion yen (up 33 percent year-over-year) and EPS of 7 yen, compared to consensus for revenue of 139 billion yen and EPS of (29) yen. According to NPD, Nintendo’s Q2 U.S. HW dollar sales were down 3 percent year-over-year, while SW dollar sales were down 18 percent, both well below our estimates. Wii U, introduced domestically last November, continues to sell significantly below the levels typically associated with a new console launch. F/X rates for the quarter were 99 yen/$1 and 131 yen/1 euro versus Nintendo’s FY:14 assumptions of 90 yen/$1 and 120 yen/1 euro, positively impacting results.

We expect FY:14 guidance to remain largely unchanged. Nintendo has guided to FY:14 revenue of 920 billion yen, operating income of 100 billion yen, and EPS of 430 yen. Despite a difficult start to FY:14, Nintendo has a significant number of quality releases later this year, and we expect continued optimism about a turnaround.

The Wii U price cut and October introduction of the 2DS may be insufficient to turn around Nintendo’s sagging fortunes in the console and handheld markets, respectively. In August, Nintendo announced a $50 reduction in the suggested retail price of the Wii U Deluxe bundle to $299.99, effective September 20. We do not think the price cut alone will be enough to jump start sales, as the perception remains that Wii U could be an inferior machine to the PS4 and Xbox One. Compelling bundles will help somewhat, but the Wii U’s future appears bleak.

Also in August, Nintendo announced the 2DS Portable, released on October 12 at $129.99, which plays all 3DS and DS games in 2D. Although the response to the 2DS has been tepid so far, it could drive sales 25 percent higher over the near-term. In the long-term, however, we think dedicated handheld gaming device sales will remain challenged by the ubiquity of smart phones and tablets.

Maintaining our NEUTRAL rating and 12-month price target of 12,000 yen. Our PT reflects a 10x forward EV/adjusted EPS multiple, and is a premium to its 8,000 yen/share in cash and investments. We expect continuing weakness in handheld demand despite the introduction of the 2DS. In addition, we expect console market share erosion to accelerate upon the November launches of the next-gen consoles from competitors Microsoft and Sony.

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Re: Pachter's full statement on Nintendo Q2 incoming results

Postby 8_Bit_Boy » 28 Oct 2013 22:48

NEUTRAL rating... Nintendo not doomed?
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Pachter's full statement on Nintendo Q2 incoming results - o

Postby moomoo » 28 Oct 2013 23:11

@8_Bit_Boy Neutral rating means that they believe that Nintendo's current stock value is pretty much at what they believe it's worth, as well as what it will be in the near future. So... not doomed.

I don't see the hate for Pachter. His job is to advise investors as to what they should put their money in when it comes to the relatively short term. I like my Wii U, but I really doubt Nintendo will hit the sales targets they are aiming for by the next fiscal year. And the 3DS, while undeniably a success, is something that I doubt will do nearly as well as the original DS. It'll still make Nintendo a ton of money; heck, if it does half as well as the DS it'd be a fantastic success. But I don't know if a successful handheld and a not super successful, but ultimately profitable, home console is going to warrant Nintendo having the share numbers they had during the height of the DS and Wii era.
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Pachter's full statement on Nintendo Q2 incoming results - o

Postby Senario » 29 Oct 2013 00:24

@moomoo Because he is blatantly a fanboy and not at all objective about the industry. He doesn't have any history of working in video games and only got his job for being from a well known firm. It even shows here how he thinks the 3ds is in bad fortunes for handhelds when the opposite is true. And besides when you work for GT and you say things like "Nintendo sucks" you are doubly lacking in any objective credibility.
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Re: Pachter's full statement on Nintendo Q2 incoming results

Postby MasterofMonster » 29 Oct 2013 02:38

I don't really care what he says, he's forever a idiot who will forever get a - from me.

Plus, it's good if he talks crap about Nintendo, cuz' that means Nintendo will do fine~
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Re: Pachter's full statement on Nintendo Q2 incoming results

Postby Furious Francis » 29 Oct 2013 02:39

Pachter and his associates can not be taken seriously. He "predicted" the Wii U sold around 55K in September.....and the reports came out it sold nearly double that. Why was he so off?

Pachter is going to continue to make Nintendo look bad at any opportunity he has. Weather is financial documents, NPD, 3DS sales...ect.

Nobody should take this clown seriously. He is bias, and does not report on Sony's struggles with money at all. He didn't even mention that one of the Sony investors wanted them to split the divisions because the gaming division was doing so poorly.

Pachter also didn't comment on Sony's "Junk" credit rating, or how Rick Sherlund, a respected Microsoft analyst, stated the Xbox brand has "made no money".

Why RMC continue to posts this clowns skewed and bias data is beyond me.
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Re: Pachter's full statement on Nintendo Q2 incoming results

Postby Mike_Intellivision » 29 Oct 2013 03:04

This is a stock report to customers. It is certainly more professional than some (see Motley Fool which is critical of the 2DS for shifting to a mor toy-like aesthetic). And like more guideance, it only includes general informations and opinion, no facts _ does anyone have any idea what the tepid reaction to the 2DS has been? (It is amazing how anahlysts expect people to buy stock basedon opinions while we seek evaluation data to buy almost everything else of consequence).

I also wonder how well the other consoles will do. People never seen to talk about that.
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(PM me if younwould like to be WiiU friends .
... I know that sounds strange at best but I am looking to fill out my friends list.)
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Re: Pachter's full statement on Nintendo Q2 incoming results

Postby joshb1983 » 29 Oct 2013 05:39

The biggest problem with all analysts is that the think the WiiU should sell as well as the Wii, and the 3DS as good as DS. That's like expecting a new book to sell as much as the bible!
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Re: Pachter's full statement on Nintendo Q2 incoming results

Postby PEICanada7 » 29 Oct 2013 08:58

I don't know why anyone, would listen to this moron, about stock advice. Look at what he said about Netflix, and BestBuy. He slammed both stocks, and said there dead, and going nowhere. Both are way up since he went of CNBC, and said BestBuy is on it's way out, and NetFlix stock was overpriced, and going down. He probably lost people a ton of money, if they we're stupid enough to listen to this idiot. Netflix was at all time highs last week, and BestBuy has now over doubled it's stock price since then. Yeah, nice call Pachter. Just like with the gaming industry, he's wrong all the time! When the hell has he ever been right about something?
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Re: Pachter's full statement on Nintendo Q2 incoming results

Postby Aiddon » 29 Oct 2013 10:28

Senario wrote:@moomoo Because he is blatantly a fanboy and not at all objective about the industry. He doesn't have any history of working in video games and only got his job for being from a well known firm. It even shows here how he thinks the 3ds is in bad fortunes for handhelds when the opposite is true. And besides when you work for GT and you say things like "Nintendo sucks" you are doubly lacking in any objective credibility.


I wouldn't say he's a fanboy so much as he's an idiot. The guy just isn't good at his job and has shown no signs of improving. I think Nintendo just irritates him because they do the exact opposite of everything everyone else does and are more successful. I think them being Japanese also rubs him the wrong way because he's used to WESTERN business practices, not Eastern ones so he has a very flawed view when trying to evaluate them.
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Re: Pachter's full statement on Nintendo Q2 incoming results

Postby nuckles87n » 29 Oct 2013 11:03

He predicted the Wii U would do quite well out of the gate. It did not.

The issue isn't that he is some sort of "fanboy". It is that he is often wrong. He predicted the 3DS would do well, then when it didn't he predicted that it was the end of the handheld industry. The 3DS is now doing quite well for itself.
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Pachter's full statement on Nintendo Q2 incoming results - o

Postby keyz » 29 Oct 2013 23:06

@nuckles87n

Actually the Wii U did awesome in its first two months. It had sales equal to the wii at launch. January is when things got ugly.

Anyways nobody can take this fool seriously especiallly when he says Nintendo's handheld division is sagging when the 3DS has been top dog for months now, selling more than any other console OR handheld.
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