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Pachter on NX expectations, if Nintendo should go 3rd party, Nintendo staying in the console business
WARNING - THIS IS A MICHAEL PACHTER FEATURE. If his comments enrage you, please avoid hitting the jump. If you are okay with his comments, please click through.
Coming from Michael Pachter...
“I think it really depends on what people expect software sales to be on the NX. You’re asking me to compare NX to a third-party strategy. If the NX is as successful as the Wii U, it makes more sense for Nintendo to go third-party. If the NX is as successful as the Wii, then it doesn’t make sense. Nintendo sold about half of all software ever put out there for the Wii. There were literally 100 million Wiis, probably a software catch rate around 8, so Nintendo literally sold something like 400 million pieces of software for the Wii. That’s a very profitable business. If they have that success with the NX, of course they should do that.”
If they go third-party, you’re talking about an install base around 55 million consoles. I think ultimately you will get an install base of 200 million PlayStation 4 and Xbox One, Nintendo will need a 20 percent share on those platforms to replicate the success it had with Wii. That’s possible, but it’s not likely.
I do think once Nintendo decides one way or another, that will drive future purchase decisions from consumers. If Nintendo says ‘we’re going third-party all the time,’ a lot of Nintendo fanboys will buy an Xbox One or PS4 and I actually think Sony would do some interesting things with Nintendo. Because I think, both being Japanese companies, there’s just a lot of opportunities for those two to work together. I actually think you would see some really cool things on PS4. But, we’re speculating for speculation’s sake. I don’t think that’s going to happen, and I’m answering the question because you asked it.
My bias is Nintendo is going to stay in the console business until they fail completely, and I don’t even think they consider the Wii U a failure. Failing completely means no one buys the console at all. Since we don’t know what the NX is, it’s kinda hard to make a forecast on what the sales levels will be. My guess is, it will sell more units than the Wii U. So, better than the Wii U, and that’s enough to keep Nintendo continuing to stay in the console business and as a first-party.”