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Nintendo stock drops 8%, analysts react to mobile plans, NX goals and more

by rawmeatcowboy
28 April 2016
GN Version 5.0

Nintendo's fiscal year 2015 results came out and predictably, investors aren't happy. Stock has dropped 8% since the announcement. Now a handful of analysts have come together to discuss the results, Nintendo's mobile plans and Nintendo's goal to make NX a success.

“Investors are not going to like that. With the titles coming later in the year, earnings for the first half don’t look so good. And people who expected NX to launch this year will also be disappointed.” - Hideki Yasuda, an analyst at Ace Research Institute in Tokyo

“If Mario is available on smartphones, then why buy into the closed world of Nintendo handheld gaming?. Nintendo is going to delay releasing a Mario smartphone game until proven that it’s the only way to monetize its key intellectual properties on mobile.” - Pelham Smithers

“Given market hopes that as its famous characters will slowly be imported in games targeting smartphones, we believe its poor forecasts might be ignored. NX will also keep some investors hoping for a gradual recovery.” - Amir Anvarzadeh, manager of Japanese equity sales at BGC Partners Inc.

"Big picture: the NX is critical to the long term success of Nintendo,. Nintendo needs to rebound with the NX to remain a relevant platform holder over the next five years. The challenge is that the roadmap for a successful Nintendo console is unclear. The market is limited for a third HD console on which the main USP is Nintendo IP, and motion [controlled] gaming has evolved from a fad in mainstream entertainment into a niche. Finding the market need for a third console will be a challenge, and thus far very little is known about how the NX will accomplish this." - Patrick Walker, EEDAR's VP of insights and analytics

"The company may be taking the additional time to properly prepare for the NX launch and to maximise the quality of upcoming major franchises like Zelda as well. This may cause some investors anxiety, but we'll see whether it was worth the wait. Nintendo should be working on the NX library and manufacturing pipeline to make certain that the launch is smooth, with sufficient supply, and that the library will be sufficient to drive demand." - Billy Pidgeon, an independent analyst

"It's a bit of a half-step approach, but it's understandable since Nintendo's console business has to be focused on making the NX a success at this point. The Wii U didn't meet expectations, and I don't blame Nintendo for shifting gears and trying to come as strongly out of the gate with NX as possible. Having a great Zelda title on day one will help. Yes, the Wii U catalog is looking thin this holiday, but at this point I think Nintendo and everyone else can see the handwriting on the wall and it is pivoting towards whetting the appetite of its faithful fans for the NX." - IDC Research director Lewis Ward

"Scheduling a hardware launch so late in the [fiscal] year and excluding any NX sales from guidance suggests a lack of confidence that the device will actually launch in FY17. It is important to note that a March launch provides Nintendo with wiggle room to delay, as it's still likely to launch well ahead of the key holiday season." - Wedbush Securities' Michael Pachter

"Historically, Nintendo has been in control of most of the value chain, integrating both hardware and software into a single ecosystem, but now that situation has changed. For one, digital distribution takes up almost one-fifth of software revenue (19%), and continues to grow year-over-year. In addition, its success with new revenue streams like the amiibo is growing, even as US sales for the toys-to-life category have started to flatten out. That provides necessary income in the midst of a volatile period, but it cannot cover the whole. Nintendo's international success - with Fire Emblem selling more outside of Japan (1.06M units compared to 780K) - has a greater exposure to currency fluctuations. And, finally, both of its key titles, Fire Emblem and Animal Crossing, were initially conceived as console titles but have found their greatest degree of success on handhelds. It shows that the games industry is, in fact, so volatile that even a powerhouse like Nintendo is not impervious to it. Nintendo's current game plan is likely to provide enough runway to develop a full strategy and rollout that capitalises on the current market changes. The thing to remember about Nintendo is to never count it out." - SuperData's Joost van Dreunen

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