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Pachter says NX sales could hit 30 million, Nintendo not getting out of hardware business

WARNING - THIS IS A MICHAEL PACHTER FEATURE. If his comments enrage you, please avoid hitting the jump. If you are okay with his comments, please click through.

The following comes from analyst Michael Pachter...

“I would say modest potential that it bombs. I would give them a 60 percent chance of success, I think they are smart people, I think they have learned a lot from what they did wrong with the Wii U. Are they going to get the Wii magic back? Probably not. But if they go back to a conventional-like console, their only problem they have now is they are very late in the cycle so they’re not going to sell that many. Could they sell 30 million? Sure. They could sell enough to make a difference and make a profit. They’re not getting out of the handheld business until the sales drop to zero – three or four million a year. And that is probably five, seven or eight years out. So no, they’re not going to get out of hardware.”

Categories: Interviews, Consoles, Portables
Tags: pachter, nx

Comments

Although that sounds pretty optimistic, even coming from Pachter, I don't necessarily agree with him. Biggest problem is that we don't even know squat about the NX, so it's impossible to predict whether it will succeed without having anything to go on.

Exactly, and Nintendo is definitely going to try something completely new, so it's impossible to predict it.

8bit101
Sun Nov 22 15 04:01pm
(Updated 1 time)

That's why the key word is "could"
Never said that it "will".
And also 30 million consoles by today's standards is considered rather "meh" performance wise for the usual number of years a console is supported.

That said, as long as they make a good profit without suffering much losses, it's good for them.

Well that's why he said 30 million, because he doesn't see NX being an 8 year console.

Ok, off-topic but I'm gonna say it: I'd pay real cash to own a Micheal Patcher bobbly-head figure.

I... I would do too. Maybe it could even make sound.
But it shouldn't be too expensive, so, hm...

Will it come with karate-chop action?!?! D:

I think there is potential for more 3DS-like numbers: much higher than 30 million. Simply because NX isn't so much a "Wii U is dead we need a new console" as it seems like "Successor to the 3DS."

The 3DS sold pretty well despite coming out "late" in the last gen hardware cycle.

Simply because NX isn't so much a "Wii U is dead we need a new console" as it seems like "Successor to the 3DS."

[Citation needed]

Considering how we know literally nothing about the system, it's clear Pachter is just bored and reminding people that he exists.

Nintendo's right to focus on the Wii U at this time. The Smash-Splat bundle, the Xenoblade bundle, the SMT×FE bundle, amiibo support for third parties and indies, and their statements about the jumping environment for classical JRPGs on the DS and 3DS and creating an equally welcoming environment for them with the Wii U, point towards Nintendo making the public understand that why the Wii U works better for games. Once the public understands that and has a positive outlook for Nintendo consoles, they can start talking about the NX.

Spilling NX too early just gives other companies opportunities to copy anything innovative about it (or worse, half-bake their own copies, overcharge for them, and drop support so that the user-base is primed to dismiss Nintendo's innovations as useless gimmickry). Best to leave NX discussion until after PS5 and XBoxOne2 specs are out.

yomanation
Mon Nov 23 15 05:43am
(Updated 1 time)

Nintendo's right to focus on the Wii U at this time.

Except they are not focusing on Wii U at all, or the 3DS for the matter. All their internal studios have switched to NX game development, and that's why all we get for Wii U and 3DS is filler titles such as Mario Tennis. Xenoblade is an exception but that game has been in development for several years, and has been out in Japan for over half a year already. I mean, sure, they are going to market the Wii U bundles to people, but that doesn't mean they are working on more Wii U stuff or have any plans for the system beyond Starfox and Zelda U. Also,reminder, Starfox is developed by Platinum, and Zelda U will most likely also come out on the NX, similar to Twilight Princess on Gamecube and Wii.

I doubt Zelda for Wii U will also come out with an NX version. The NX will likely be backward compatible with Wii U games, or at least offer digital copies, so there would be no point. They originally wanted to make it so you could play the GameCube version on the Wii with different controls. I guess they just weren't able to make that happen.

The NX will likely be backward compatible with Wii U games

I severely doubt that, it would inflate the price of the console too much and Nintendo can't afford to sell an overpriced console at the moment. Even if the games are available as digital, they would need to be recompiled for the NX - essentially they would need to be ported, so if they are going to do that, I see no reason why they wouldn't go all the way and port them fully.

Okay. Well, we'll see.

I couldn't be 100% certain why he would make such a prediction, not that I think he would be accurate, however that's a pretty optimistic call on his part, maybe someone's showing him some think, that only developers are privy to, wink wink.

I'd love to know what Nintendo's planning for NX. I would think coming into a console generation around the halfway point would not bode well for sales, but I guess we'll see.

Sun Nov 22 15 06:04pm
(Updated 1 time)

If I said that the NX could sell 100 million, would that make me a game analysist too?

P.S. Still love that gif.

mereel
Sun Nov 22 15 06:07pm
(Updated 1 time)

People like Pachter keep talking about the NX being "late" to this console race, as though Nintendo is going to cut and paste the Wii U with the NX next year, to directly compete with Xbox and PS, and we'll just forget Wii U ever happened.

I don't see it that way at all. Nintendo was perhaps early to this current gen console race, and the NX will likewise be early to the next gen console race.

Here's my prediction: The "NX" isn't a console at all, but a development platform like Android or iOS. I believe Nintendo will release a software update for the Wii U in 2016 to enable distribution of games using this shared common platform. Then later in 2016 the new 3ds line will also receive a software update to enable NX-compatible software. This will allow for a cross-platform environment in which Nintendo can develop games that are distributed as a single download, but provide different gaming experiences depending on the device used (sort of like universal app downloads for iPhone and iPad).

Finally, Nintendo will eventually release a new home console and a new handheld console, both of which will be based on what we're calling the "NX" platform. So, will NX release in 2016? Yeah, but not in the way you're thinking of now. Dedicated new consoles based on this platform will not be until 2017 at least.

There's my prediction. What do you think? Better than Pachter, no?

Mon Nov 23 15 12:57am
(Updated 1 time)

That's not all completely in line with what iwata had said about the platform. He said the NX installed base would be "starting from zero"

If you've been paying attention to Nintendo's presentations during investor meetings, they always had NX separate to other devices, and they have stated numerous times that it's hardware.

I think it's ridiculous to have a Pachter warning tbh. People with a problem should just ignore it.

Here's an idea: If people don't want to see Pachter comments, then what makes you think they're going to want to see a picture of his smarmy face every time he appears on this site? It's a hell of a lot easier to ignore a block of text than it is to ignore a large animated GIF.

I love that gif so much.

I think he's right about Nintendo being late to the party and it's an enormous hurdle whether the fans want to admit it or not. Support is scant and there will be some disgruntled Wii U owners who need to be convinced that there won't be a repeat of that disaster. But he gives Nintendo credit where it's due - they're not dumb. But they've made some big blunders and after Wii U I'd say 30 million of any system from Nintendo is a generous prediction.

Agreed. I'm personally very displeased with the Wii U and how Nintendo ceased to support the thing once they saw that it's not going well. Business-wise maybe they took the right decision, but long-term they lost a ton of fans. Unless NX has incredible launch titles, I'm not going to pick one up until much later on.

I'm right there with you. Wii U has been such a waste of space. All I've asked for is that I get my occasional Zelda and Metroid fix and so far Wii U has only had a Zelda remake and no Metroid. Nintendo will have to seriously impress when they reveal NX because I'm done putting up with their BS.

yomanation
Mon Nov 23 15 02:04pm
(Updated 1 time)

Nintendo would really need to pull a complete 180 at this point to impress me. I mean, they would not only need to offer much better (launch) titles, but they should also vastly improve their business practices. They business mindset is completely stuck somewhere between 90's and early 00's and with their more recent Wii U offerings it's showing no signs of improvement. Even down to things like pricing. I can buy indie games that are much better and more impressive (even TECHNICALLY) than some Nintendo offerings, for a fraction of the price; this is by no means acceptable in 2015. Can they really change everything about their public image in a little over 6 months? Personally, I have my doubts, but I hope so.

I haven't completely lost faith in Nintendo. After all I've been mostly happy with 3DS. They're ridiculously out of touch when it comes to home consoles though. It's one thing for Wii U to be inferior next to PS4 and Xbone but they're still looking foolish compared to PS3 and 360. I hope the completely humiliating disaster of Wii U woke them up.

Yeah I'm still enjoying my 3DS a lot, although there's not a lot to look forward to anymore and their offerings this year were pretty lackluster. The system has a lot of games, including 3rd party so Nintendo can definitely afford to not focus on the 3DS. I've been picking up some games I missed the previous years such as Metal Gear Solid 3D and Fantasy Life to make up for the lack of new releases, there's a pretty big back catalog of games for it. They are trying to push the same idea for Wii U this holiday season, but obviously nobody is buying that.

Yeah 3DS is tapering off but that was bound to happen eventually. Still, I think we can look back and safely say it had a good run (despite the criminal lack of a real Metroid game). Can't say the same about Wii U, which was practically DOA.

Yeah the 3DS was a great console to own, if it wasn't for the sheer size of DS' library, I would probably prefer it as a whole, even though I barely used the 3D feature at all, which was another failed gimmick, but thankfully the console had games to back it up after the first lackluster year. The Wii U was essentially only alive for 2 years, and even those couple years weren't exactly chock-full of games. I still remember the drought of games before Pikmin 3's release, as well as before Tropical Freeze's release. Nintendo fans have endured a lot this gen. If Nintendo releases NX late 2016 (which honestly seems like the most likely scenario to me), the Wii U will barely be 4 years old at that point. Depending on how long this gen lasts, it might not be too late, but I feel like it is.

Yeah, the Wii U, they screwed up big time. At this point, non of us really don't how Nintendo gonna pull themselves out of this predicament. But then again, if they can pull themselves out of the bad situation with the N64 and GameCube with the original Wii, you can bet they could do the same with the with NX.. But however, we gotta wait and see til the NX comes out. With the Wii U, despite not a bad system on it's own right, you can sense that something didn't click with the thing compared to it's predecessor. Especially when they didn't hardly avertise the system during it's earlier days, didn't utilize the system's main gimmick that well, confusing name, inferior ports of third party games, system's technical disadvantage (that didn't stop it's predecessor from being successful and power didn't help the two previous systems before that one), etc, etc, etc. But yeah. For the NX, they definitely NEED to step up their game and stop being reluctant to integrate things that are a standard to current gaming. Well, with a new president and all., there's some hope for the future, even though it might not be how we personally wanted it to be. Of course, all the waithing can make us all axious, or some cases, cynical.

What is it I've heard people say - don't ever count Nintendo out? They've fallen in their face this time but they're still a force to be reckoned with. Pachter is recognizing this.... And despite my extreme cynicism I recognize this as well. I just don't know what the hell they could do to correct their home console business. Even though mobile is majorly changing the handheld gaming landscape I image Nintendo will still put out an appealing portable successor while getting a piece of the mobile pie.

Only one downvote as of this moment? Geez, Gonintendo is getting soft.

rsmith7
Mon Nov 23 15 03:53pm
(Updated 1 time)

And still looking for ways to take jabs at people, are we?

I'm personally wondering if they're still gonna be in the handheld business. Even with what he said mobile games are huge. Sure not everyone can afford an iPhone or top of the line Android phone, but there are plenty of phones out there that can play even the simplest of games. But I'm sure they'll give us at least 1 more good handheld.

Considering how well 3DS does in Japan, I can't see them leaving the handheld business anytime soon.

Maybe Nintendo's next handheld will play android games on it. Nintendo is releasing apps for smart phones, that just makes it all the more plausible, so you can still play them on a Nintendo device. Take the android market and Nintendo's backlog and you have a huge library out of the gate.

The guy has just pulled this number out of his *ss.

The NX could sell 10 million or it could sell 100 million.

No one has the slightest clue, because no one knows anything about it.

H..how... how do you predict anything, let alone sales figures of a device that the public literally knows nothing about?

30 Million units or 30 million dollars worth?

rsmith7
Mon Nov 23 15 03:57pm
(Updated 1 time)

We literally don't know how well the NX will do when it com. I suggest we wait and see before we jump to conclusions.

Say no to soothsayers folks.

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