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Pachter predicts Wii price cut, Wii U bundle/price cut, future support, 3rd parties, sales and struggles

The following comes from Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter...

On price cuts, bundles

We also expect the hardware manufacturers to announce price cuts. We expect the prices for the PS3 and Xbox 360 to drop by at least $50 as we approach the holidays, with the Wii dropping to $99. In addition, Nintendo may look to spur Wii U sales through either a hardware price drop of $50 or a bundle that includes some of its more popular software. Sony will likely cut price for its PS Vita handheld, which has struggled since release due in part to its high starting price point of $249.

On Wii U staying power and third party support...

We believe the Wii U release slate on display will be a key determinant of the console’s long-term staying power. With the more powerful PS4 and Xbox One launching later this year, Nintendo risks losing additional share to its console competitors if the quality and volume of content available for Wii U does not pick up markedly in the near-term. In addition, if the Wii U’s popularity does not improve by the end of the year, many third-party publishers may pass on producing games for the console. We note that EA recently announced that it had no Wii U games in development, and it remains a possibility that the publisher will abandon the platform entirely. Should other third parties follow EA’s lead, the Wii U could be relegated to a first party only platform. We expect the Wii U release slate on display at E3 to be very first-party-centric (as outlined below), with limited third-party support coming from Activision Blizzard, Warner Bros., and Ubisoft, among others.

More on price cuts...

Fortunately, we think that price cuts will come no later than E3 for the two current generation consoles, with a cut for the Wii and a bundle for the Wii U likely before holiday. That should mitigate some of the declines in monthly software sales we have seen so far this year.

On Wii U install base, future revenue...

With that said, we continue to believe that Nintendo misfired with the Wii U, and believe that the next-generation of consoles will see a market share shift from Nintendo platforms to Microsoft and Sony platforms. In the aggregate, we think that the installed base of next-generation of home consoles at a similar point in the cycle will be smaller than the current generation, likely by 10-20%. However, the composition will be much different, with Sony and Microsoft each selling 85- 100 million home consoles (compared to approximately 75 million each in the current cycle) and Nintendo selling 50 million or fewer (compared to approximately 100 million in the current cycle). The 50 million decline in our forecast for Nintendo’s home console installed base reflects defections of more non-traditional gamers to social and mobile games. Should third parties follow EA’s lead and abandon the Wii U, it is likely that many Wii U households will purchase a next-generation console from Microsoft or Sony in addition to their Nintendo consoles, driving the installed base for “hard core” consoles to 220 million or higher.

On 3DS, third parties, smartphone, social and tablet games...

We continue to expect handheld hardware sales to decline over the next few years, as many non-traditional gamers consider smartphone and tablet games a perfect substitute for casual games played on dedicated handheld hardware. While we believe this news is bad for third-party game publishers focused on the Nintendo 3DS, there are few publishers remaining who are focused in any meaningful way on the 3DS. At least one publisher formerly focused on the Nintendo handhelds is bankrupt (THQ), and another
(Ubisoft) appears to have successfully shifted its focus from handheld games to a broader hard core offering. With the exception of Ubisoft, our OUTPERFORM-rated publishers have little exposure to Nintendo’s handheld platforms.

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28 total comments (View all)
User avatar
03 Jun 2013 14:35

And RMC, as usual, kisses Patcher's butt...
User avatar
03 Jun 2013 14:36

220 million for "hard-core" consoles!? No respected researcher, or journalist would refer to them as that. Also, he is going to be in for a major back-hand slap in one year when the new "hard-core" consoles are selling below expectations.
No Avatar
03 Jun 2013 14:54

this guy is a crook, plain and simple.

it's sad that people have very little ability to see through BS when it is right in their face. Guys like this get paid to hurt companies, for the benefit of another company.

I guess in such a naive world, people always assume good intentions, but i assure you human nature does not operate on such silly notions when money is involved.
No Avatar
03 Jun 2013 15:09

I love it when Mr. Pachter Talks BS. Anyway by the end of the next gen the combined sales of the PS4 and Xbox One will be less than the Sales of the Wii U IMHO.
User avatar
03 Jun 2013 15:09

What do you idiots keep taking this jackass seriously? Just today we were witness to how FUSE (a game Pachter said would sell 5 million or higher) completely bombed, to the surprise of no-one but Pachter. He's always wrong and constantly bashes Nintendo, stop promoting him and his predictions :evil:
User avatar
03 Jun 2013 15:17

at least this is his real analysis and not his gibberish intentional trolling he does to get GT views and page hits etc...
User avatar
03 Jun 2013 15:38

It's always fun to read Pachter's assumptions!

We as real gamers know he is wrong. PS4One will have much lower sales than PS360 had, because there is no real improvement visible, albeit the Xone will offer TV, TV, TV... Sports, Sports, Sports... and most important Calloduty, Calloduty and last but not least Calloduty!

Xone win! With a brand new Calloduty you instantly win!

McDaniel-77
No Avatar
Anonymous
03 Jun 2013 15:54

sergiomonty wrote:And RMC, as usual, kisses Patcher's butt...


He's just posting news, good or bad. That was an extremely disrespectful thing to say... and that's coming from me! lol
User avatar
03 Jun 2013 16:11

Anclation wrote:What do you idiots keep taking this jackass seriously? Just today we were witness to how FUSE (a game Pachter said would sell 5 million or higher) completely bombed, to the surprise of no-one but Pachter. He's always wrong and constantly bashes Nintendo, stop promoting him and his predictions :evil:



It's still Nintendo news. Bad or good.

I don't think a Wii U price cut will come so soon. But it does depend on the prices of the two other consoles first of all. And let us not forget this E3 will be filled with big titles from all three.
User avatar
03 Jun 2013 16:13

Entity wrote:
Anclation wrote:What do you idiots keep taking this jackass seriously? Just today we were witness to how FUSE (a game Pachter said would sell 5 million or higher) completely bombed, to the surprise of no-one but Pachter. He's always wrong and constantly bashes Nintendo, stop promoting him and his predictions :evil:



It's still Nintendo news. Bad or good.

This is not news. Not remotely close. Neither are the rumors that he posts.
User avatar
03 Jun 2013 16:16

Once again, this guy's right... unfortunately.
But the people here are still biased.
No Avatar
03 Jun 2013 16:23

ChozoBoy wrote:There are already bundles. What a late-ass "prediction."


The bundles he "assumes" will be coming have more to do with the rumored 32 GB White model, adding wii-mote/pro controller/other video games into the box and selling it at a price point that is currently beneficial to the consumer.

Nintendo has done bundles and changed their bundles for many generations of home consoles. This is nothing new but a way to spur interest in people who may be on the fence on purchasing the console to actually do it. I expect there to be some sort of Mario Bundle this holiday season.
No Avatar
03 Jun 2013 16:29

sergiomonty wrote:And RMC, as usual, kisses Patcher's butt...
You need to go outside and take in the fresh air,and then come back to reality.no matter what is put on this site,news is still news,good or bad.I suggest if you dont like what's being posted on a gaming news site then you should go somewhere else because you've come to the wrong place.nothing will ever be someones taste on any type of news site,but dont be disrespectful with what you disagree with.
User avatar
03 Jun 2013 16:31

Ok, time to school this clown...

1) There are already bundles besides Nintendoland. ZombiU and other titles have been packaged in for a while. And Nintendo is banking on having a lower price point than Microcrap or Sony. This alone will help with appeal in a tight economy.

2) EA clarified recently that it DOES have games in development for Nintendo, just not as much as Microcrap or Sony. And no one cared.

3) Wii U is ALREADY pretty first-party-centric, as well as second-party, which he completely ignores.

4) And he COMPLETELY ignores a tough economy by predicting 85-100m in Xboned-PS4 sales. ALL consoles will sell less this gen as the economy continues on a sluggish recovery from the brink of death, which people like HIM caused.

5) And finally, he ignores the DRM issues plaguing the Xboned, the forced online, the forced Kinect 2.0, and other Microcrap issues, while praising the system as the second coming of Jesus. Easy to see what company HE has stock in...
User avatar
03 Jun 2013 16:35

hcpina wrote:Once again, this guy's right... unfortunately.
But the people here are still biased.


You better be trolling, because Pachter is NEVER right.
No Avatar
03 Jun 2013 16:37

He could be right. But that's like saying the dollar can go up or down. It will go either way. He is usually wrong. Like 90% of the time he is wrong. And he's paid to push stocks. Nobody takes analysts seriously they're clowns.
User avatar
03 Jun 2013 16:54

@Byte Man
Yeah you REALLY showed him man, he better not come around here again! :roll:
Nothing he said (besides the overall Xbox/PS4 sales) was too crazy. He's an analyst for investors, his "assumptions" are not meant to be taken as rumors for those interested in what moves the video game industry is taking next.
User avatar
03 Jun 2013 16:55

ChozoBoy wrote:
Entity wrote:
Anclation wrote:What do you idiots keep taking this jackass seriously? Just today we were witness to how FUSE (a game Pachter said would sell 5 million or higher) completely bombed, to the surprise of no-one but Pachter. He's always wrong and constantly bashes Nintendo, stop promoting him and his predictions :evil:



It's still Nintendo news. Bad or good.

This is not news. Not remotely close. Neither are the rumors that he posts.


Nonsense. You just do not like it! It's negative Nintendo news at times, but still news. Get over it!

No, I am not saying he is right. But it is still news.
User avatar
03 Jun 2013 17:39

pokemaster515 wrote:@Byte Man
Nothing he said (besides the overall Xbox/PS4 sales) was too crazy. He's an analyst for investors, his "assumptions" are not meant to be taken as rumors for those interested in what moves the video game industry is taking next.


None of that changes the fact that he gave wrong information, and has made the same (wrong) "assumptions" for a LONG time. He's passed himself off as an expert, despite the fact that his "predictions" have always been either wrong or hedged. And when you leave out information (rather conveniently, if you ask me) about the controversy surrounding one of the products named, while bad-mouthing another for problems you are misrepresenting, you do not deserve the title of "analyst."
User avatar
03 Jun 2013 19:52

The only problem I have is with this last statement about handhelds. DS/3DS is NOT what killed THQ and even though he doesn't come out and say that, he sure implies it... And really? Ubisoft is the only third party still "focused" on the 3DS? Is he ignoring all Japanese developers? Does anyone know what this "OUTPERFORM-rated publishers" is?
User avatar
03 Jun 2013 20:11

Limited support from Ubisoft? Riight
No Avatar
03 Jun 2013 21:52

50 million for Wii U would be a treat.

Anyone can be an analyst. I'll predict final worldwide sales of 18 million for Wii U, 44 million for PS4, and 29 million for Xbox One.
User avatar
04 Jun 2013 02:51

What I don't get is why they keep making it out to sound like the Wii U won't resonate with "traditional" gamers. Many people I know who would never touch the Wii not only like the Wii U, they picked one up. Granted, they aren't the dude bros that only play Call of Dookie with Tapout shirts on that the HD consoles of this closing gen seemed to attract, no, better yet, they're the ones that played Rival Schools, Xenogears, Power Stone, Chrono Trigger, Megaman, OoT, and other like games and have supported gaming years before the Xbox or even the Playstation were even conceptualized.
No Avatar
04 Jun 2013 03:34

Lakster37 wrote:The only problem I have is with this last statement about handhelds. DS/3DS is NOT what killed THQ and even though he doesn't come out and say that, he sure implies it... And really? Ubisoft is the only third party still "focused" on the 3DS? Is he ignoring all Japanese developers? Does anyone know what this "OUTPERFORM-rated publishers" is?


Think you may have read too much into his statement above. He was talking about major Western developers with games developed for the 3DS and saying that there's one less major developer around now and that of the other major ones, Ubisoft seems to be shifting their focus away from handhelds. Don't know what makes him say that about Ubisoft though.

I'm guessing he doesn't know of any Japanese developers aside from Nintendo...

Outperform-rated publishers is purely about the market. Companies who published games and whose stock is rated as OUTPERFORM.
User avatar
04 Jun 2013 09:23

EA retracted the ''no games in development'' statement after the XBone conference.
And how in holy hell are the PS4/XBone going to reach 85 mil each? In this economy?

hcpina wrote:Once again, this guy's right... unfortunately.
But the people here are still biased.


Yeah, he was totally right with that FUSE prediction lol

kevynwight wrote:50 million for Wii U would be a treat.

Anyone can be an analyst. I'll predict final worldwide sales of 18 million for Wii U, 44 million for PS4, and 29 million for Xbox One.


That's actually a pretty realistic prediction IMO.

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