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Analysts predict bright future for Nintendo, mobile content set to help

Coming from Rupal Bhansali, the chief investment officer of international equities at Chicago-based Ariel Investments...

- stock can go up another 50% over a one-to-two-year time frame

- revenue is likely to bottom this year at $4.48 billion, based on analyst forecasts

- for the year ending in March 2017, sales could jump 17%, to $5.25 billion

Coming from Atul Goyal, a longtime Nintendo bull...

- Nintendo ultimately could match its heyday in 2008, when Ebitda (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization) hit $5.6 billion

- it could get 25% of the total smartphone-game market, which research firm IDC puts at $40.5 billion by 2018

- at a reasonable 50% margin, that’s $5.1 billion worth of profit for Nintendo

- “The casual-gaming market moved to the mobile platform, but Nintendo did not. Now the world’s largest casual-gaming company is moving to the world’s largest casual-gaming platform. In two years’ time, it’s not impossible that Nintendo could have five of the top 10 mobile games.”

- 12-month price target is $30 for the ADR

- thinks Nintendo shares could return to their 2007 high near $80 in the next two to three years

- even minimal success in smartphones puts the stock’s floor at about $17

Categories: General News

Comments

What!? But...but...I thought...Nintendo was doomed! They're still doomed, right!?

Nintendo, you need to keep your console side core-centric... Put all of your casual stuf fon smartphones if you want, but you need to be drop the casuals on consoles, badly.

No, they need to focus on both casual and cores equally. Causual bring more consumers. Nintendo can't just focus on the cores, that's one of the reasons why the Wii-u is currently suffering.

Sat Jun 20 15 10:46am
(Updated 1 time)

No, not really. The reasont he Wii U is suffering is because the Wii focused so much on the casuals. The core jumped ship when they realized motion gaming sucked. Then the casuals jumped ship to board the mobile platform. Nintendo betrayed one consumer base to please a fickle one and now they are in trouble.

And since when do people commenting on video game websites clasify themselves as casuals? When did this illogical thing happen?

And who said anyone classifying them selves as "causal", other then you? The whole labeling thing in general is stupid. It was most likely created by over oppioniated sp called "hardcore" gamers who see the casual, and the wii in general as threat to their precious way of gaming. The problem with that is gaming it self always had been causal since the earlier days. The hardcore just want gaming to themselves and thise who abide to there way is a filty outsider. Your typical stop having fun guys.

And there's serveral more reson why the wii-u's suffering then what you said. Lack of advertisement, (especially in it's earlier days), reputation, near third-part abandonmet, which lead to a severe lack of games. When third party games do realsed on the system, they don't sell, which lead to the above. I would say lack of console power compared to the other two, but that haven't stop the original wii from being the best selling cosole, last gen. Not utilizing it's main gimmick, the wii-pad enough. It's a lot more complicated then you think,

Tbh, Nintendo should've just focus on the casual like they did with the original wii. When they tried to go after the cores with the Wii-u, they suffered for it. They had founded their audience with casuals, they shouldn't had took their focus away from them.

Sat Jun 20 15 02:11pm
(Updated 2 times)

The labels exist because they are necessary. People tend to classify things to make things simpler to explain. If we stopped classifying things, then we couldn't make heads or tails of anything. There are players who ar emor einvolved in gaming, more skilled and more competitive. That is a fact. You assume we core gamers don't have fun, but the truth is, we do... a lot. There is nothing more fun that a tight match in a competitive fighter where a single mistep could mean your loss. There is no greater pleasure than overcoming a difficult spot in a game. We don't want gaming all for us, but we want to be respected and included. We made Nintendo who they are today. I could turn this around and say that casuals are often the "stop having fun" guys. Telling us we shoudln't play competitive smash because we can't for some reason. Telling us not to play the way we enjoy is hypocritical. Gaming became casual with the advent of the Wii. Back then, it was very much a core experience. Nintendo merely made core games that were accessible, but they were still deep and you couldn't beat them unless you had some skill. You are the new minority. If they appeal to you, they will not sell. Casual gamers are no longer relevant.

Not utilizing the gamepad much is the reason I got a Wii U in the first place. I was happy it felt that they stopped forcing it on us. However, they just did a 180. Nintendo messe dup on many fronts. Their systems are hard to port for, they are weak, the gamepad is a bad tech that forces them to make games look worse / and forces people to use tech they don't want to use. It has bad ergonomy and just isn't fun for some of us. They divided their fanbase by creating that casual / hardcore classification through their own behaviour. Before the Wii, we never would have had this discussion.

Nintendo should focus on the gamers, core gamers. The casuals play on smartphones, Nintendo cannot get them back, and they shouldn't. They are fickle. The core audience is the future of gaming, and if they don't appeal to them, they will die.

This is more of a response to Vigilante_Blade, but apparently you can't nest replies any further than you guys already have so I have to respond to this one. The first thing though, is that I whole heartedly disagree that the Wii U gamepad isn't ergonomic. I know that this somewhat comes down to "preferences" and sure you might prefer one gamepad to another, if they have similarly good ergonomics, but I think there's such thing as demonstrably "good" and "bad" ergonomics that most people could agree on. The Wii U gamepad falls into the good category, the original 3DS falls into the bad category. ;-)

As for casual/core, I understand the necessity of humans to categorize to simplify their explanations and understanding of complex problems, and often times it works, but other times it creates huge oversimplifications that end up not reflecting the true larger picture. I think that the casual/core distinction is one of them. For instance, if today Mario was a new IP, I think it would be labeled as "casual". I wouldn't be surprised if many so-called "hardcore" gamers actually do label it as a casual game. But then look at the NWC and how much joy and excitement came out of those final Mario Maker runs that could only be described as "hardcore". There's no easy definition of those two terms, casual/hardcore, and all games and gamers will lie somewhere on a spectrum if you insist on using those terms. Nintendo has always been home to what self identified hardcore gamers today would label as "casuals" - otherwise the NES, SNES, Game Boy and so on wouldn't have sold nearly the numbers that they did. You think that all 200M of the people that ended up buying a PS2 are all "hardcores"? Of course not, Sony could never have sold nearly that many if all they catered to were so-called "hardcore" games.

well with such a brilliant analysis, rmc tell us the truth are you buying stock now ?

And they'll go back saying how Nintendo is doomed once they realize Zelda U is not coming to iOS.

I think they should color the Nintendo oval logo again for their App Store brandings. Grey/white just doesn't stand out

This. The current one looks too sterile [like Apple's and pretty much any other tech company] - the red logo invoked a sense of fun and made them stand out - I hope they bring it back [starting with Club Nintendo's successor in the Fall]!

That's all well and good, but if they don't invest that money elsewhere then it's worthless.

Buying out companies like Capcom or Bandai Namco would be a place to start investing for their dedicated consoles.

Nintendo has stated that they do not want to just by studios. They also want the talent behind the games. Buying a studio and letting the talent leave just gives you IPs. The minds that developed the IPs are needed to make new entries into the games. In order for Nintendo to be able to buy out Capcom. Nintendo would have to be assured that the talented developers would not leave because of the purchase.

When Microsoft purchased Rare, a number of staff members left. They did not want to be a part of Microsoft.

Nintendo owned a certain percentage of Bandai. However, after the merger with Namco that percentage shrunk. Also it would be hard for Nintendo to buy Bandai Namco because the company is not for sale.

)) <--- Numbers from this analyst

In case it is not clear, that is a gluteus maximus

I don't have a smart phone and don't plan on getting one. I hope they bring their mobile games to their consoles.

Uhh, that would be missing the point of having a mobile division...

So you're saying their new strategy is to divert fans from their consoles?

No. Their primary mobile strategy is to convert the non-traditional gamer like ourselves into Nintendo console and handheld fans.

Well with your analysis aside, I still personally hope I get a chance to play their mobile games without owning a phone. My sincerest apologies if that offends you.

Well with your analysis aside, I still personally hope I get a chance to play their mobile games without owning a phone. My sincerest apologies if that offends you.

Doesn't offend me. It's your choice to live without a phone [and which will be the only likely place you'll be able to play their mobile offerings].

Wow!

These people really do only care about the bottom line.

The irony they don't realize is the entire point of branching into the mobile part, is essentially paid advertising. The mobile games raise awareness, makes them want the larger fuller experiences and brings people back into their consoles and handhelds, but bringing them back to mobile when they want instant gratification or when the others aren't available

it could get 25% of the total smartphone-game market

lolwut
I think the analysts are expecting Nintendo to put more effort into this than they actually are. Nintendo never dives into a market head first, even if it's universally thought to be a smart move, though I suppose it's possible they'll ramp it up within 3 years if they see early returns.

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