Ampere Analysis own Piers Harding-Rolls expects the Nintendo Switch sales to start declining following the earnings results from yesterday, where Nintendo revealed that Switch sales were down 20%. Harding-Rolls says that this is the start where the Switch will start to decline until the successor is released.
Switch sales, setting aside the unexpectedly strong growth in 2020 due to the pandemic and Animal Crossing release, are following a traditional console lifecycle shape, Even with the release of the OLED model, sales were expected to decline from their peak as the Switch reaches year six of the cycle in 2022 and Nintendo’s latest shipment forecast reflects this.
Furthermore, Harding-Rolls says that Ampere disagrees with the Switch “Pro” rumors, as they believe that we will not see an upgraded Switch before the next-generation Nintendo system. With that being said, Nintendo did decline to comment of a new hardware for this fiscal year. However, even with that being said, they still believe that the Switch will become the best-selling console ever, with an estimation of 146m units by the time the next system is released.
Ampere expects the next-gen Nintendo console to release in 2024.
Ampere is currently forecasting a next-gen Nintendo device to release in 2024. By the end of that year Switch is predicted to have sold-through 146m units meaning it still has the potential to become the best-selling console ever by the end of its lifetime, selling over 158 million units and overtaking the PlayStation 2.