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Ampere Analysis own Piers Harding-Rolls expects the Nintendo Switch sales to start declining following the earnings results from yesterday, where Nintendo revealed that Switch sales were down 20%. Harding-Rolls says that this is the start where the Switch will start to decline until the successor is released.

Switch sales, setting aside the unexpectedly strong growth in 2020 due to the pandemic and Animal Crossing release, are following a traditional console lifecycle shape, Even with the release of the OLED model, sales were expected to decline from their peak as the Switch reaches year six of the cycle in 2022 and Nintendo’s latest shipment forecast reflects this.

[Piers Harding-Rolls to VGC]

Furthermore, Harding-Rolls says that Ampere disagrees with the Switch “Pro” rumors, as they believe that we will not see an upgraded Switch before the next-generation Nintendo system. With that being said, Nintendo did decline to comment of a new hardware for this fiscal year. However, even with that being said, they still believe that the Switch will become the best-selling console ever, with an estimation of 146m units by the time the next system is released.

Ampere expects the next-gen Nintendo console to release in 2024.

Ampere is currently forecasting a next-gen Nintendo device to release in 2024. By the end of that year Switch is predicted to have sold-through 146m units meaning it still has the potential to become the best-selling console ever by the end of its lifetime, selling over 158 million units and overtaking the PlayStation 2.

[Piers Harding-Rolls to VGC]
[VGC]

About znbashi

znbashi

Just someone who spent most of his childhood playing Smash Bros with my brother, which led me to explore more games. Favorite franchises include Xenoblade and Kirby.

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Comments (9)

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thegreatking

Yeah this firms dont know shit, even less than regular fans

the_crimson_lure

7M ago

All this talk about a Switch successor based on hardware sales decreasing is so bizarre.

From a straight business standpoint that is *only* looking at moment to moment hardware sales, it makes sense: put something new out when the current product slows down.

But as far as videogames go, hardware has never been where profits come from. Traditionally companies lost money on each console sold.

Profits have always been in the sales of software. Switch now has a giant install base, which is one of the reasons software sales, especially last fiscal year, have been phenomenal.

The absolute stupidest move would be to throw away an install base still actively buying software by putting out a new console that could possibly create a loss for each unit sold.

If these firms want to accurately predict when a Switch successor will arrive, they should be looking at when *software* sales start to decline.

Edited 2 times

sligeach_eire

7M ago

I think Nintendo want to put out a Switch Pro, they probably wanted to last year, but instead we got the OLED because of the ongoing chip shortages.

While the pandemic has hurt companies, I believe it's benefitted Nintendo far more than it hurt them. The Switch was the ideal system when COVID hit and Animal Crossing released at the perfect time that helped create an explosion in sales. The pandemic has definitely affected Sony and Microsoft infinitely more. The more those 2 companies get a foothold in this generation, it will inevitably affect Nintendo, despite being rather different.

Whatever about paring down PS4/XB1 generation games, as developers move more and more exclusively onto next generation hardware, those Switch ports will dry up.

Nintendo didn't need to release the Switch Lite but they did, it reaches another subset of the market. They've done numerous iterations of their previous handhelds. If the Switch doesn't get another iteration, it won't be for the lack of wanting to on Nintendo's part. This shortage may prevent them from releasing an upgrade, but I could well see them releasing a Switch Lite OLED.


thegreatking

7M ago

Yeah this firms dont know shit, even less than regular fans


nekotaku

7M ago

I agree with this headline. There might be another version before that.


Do you think it could be better if they went the ps5 route? It has some exclusives, but a lot of their games come out on PS4, with free upgrades to ps5. They could have most titles work on both, with only some being "switch 2" exclusive. and then maybe after 3 years the switch would be phased out. Because I do agree that the install base is insane, but eventually to keep hype going you need a new console.


socar

7M ago

Didn't Shuntaro Furukawa just said that transitioning is a "major concern" for Nintendo?

Edited 1 time

the_crimson_lure

7M ago

@tlk777

My guess is as good as the next armchair analysts, but I would say no.

Sony is stuck still supporting the PS4 due to the current global situation. Before Covid-19, Sony was making it clear they wanted everyone to move to the PS5 and they would stop supporting PS4. But how things developed, with the PS5 install base currently so small, they're in a position where they can't throw the PS4 userbase away (yet).

Sony and Microsoft are more pressured to keep up with PCs, as they directly attempt to compete with that ever-evolving hardware market. Sony/Microsoft doesn't ever want to be too far behind PCs graphically, so they need to keep up a good cadence of hardware updates.

Nintendo has now completely decoupled itself from the hardware race. As long as the Switch install base continues to purchase large amounts of software, Nintendo has no need to replace the Switch.

When users stop buying software, that will signal they want something the current hardware cannot provide, which is when Nintendo will launch new hardware.

Edited 2 times

znbashi

7M ago

@socar

Another translator says that Furukawa does not exactly say that, but his sentence basically meant that they need to be more careful on how to deal with the install base that currently exists with the Switch when it comes to transitioning to new hardware.


And I bet that would be really difficult for Nintendo to do. I mean its understandable given the circumstances they had to face for the Wii U.